Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries

Name: Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries
Brand: Springer
SKU: 9780792368335
Price: 3937 CZK
Availability: InStock

Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective

Autor: E. Tabeau, Anneke van den Berg Jeths, Christopher Heathcote

Jazyk:

Vazba: Pevná

Vydavatel: Springer

Dostupnost: Skladem u dodavatele v malém množství

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Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy,...

Informace o knize

Autor

E. Tabeau, Anneke van den Berg Jeths, Christopher Heathcote

Jazyk

Angličtina

Vazba

Kniha - Pevná

Vydáno

2001

Stránek

306

EAN

9780792368335

ISBN

0792368339

Enbook ID

01396695

Vydavatel

Springer

Hmotnost

618

Rozměry

166 x 244 x 25

Kompletní popis

Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

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Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries

Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective

Informace o knize

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