Kniha Statistical Games and Human Affairs Roger J. Bowden

Statistical Games and Human Affairs

This View from Within

Jazyk: Angličtina
Vazba: Brožovaná
Dostupnost: Skladem u dodavatele
Odesíláme za 14-21 dnů
1 010
This book was first published in 1989. Inference and prediction in human affairs are characterised b...

Informace o knize

Jazyk
Angličtina
Vazba
Kniha - Brožovaná
Vydáno
2009
Stránek
296
EAN
9780521123419
ISBN
0521123410
Enbook ID
02022963
Hmotnost
440
Rozměry
152 x 229 x 17

Kompletní popis

This book was first published in 1989. Inference and prediction in human affairs are characterised by a cognitive and reactive sample space, the elements of which are aware both of the statistician and of each other. It is therefore not surprising that methodologies borrowed from classical statistics and the physical sciences have yielded disappointingly few lasting empirical insights and have sometimes failed in predictive mode. This book puts the underlying methodology of socioeconomic statistics on a firmer footing by placing it within the ambit of inferential and predictive games. It covers such problems as learning, publication, non-response, strategic response, the nature and possibility of rational expectations, time inconsistency, intrinsic nonstationarity, and the existence of probabilities. Ideas are introduced such as real-time survey schemes, argument instability and reaction-proof forecasting based on stochastic approximation. Applications are canvassed to such topics as attitude measurement, political polling, econometric modelling under heterogeneous information, and the forecasting of hallmark events.

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